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Future Antarctic Ozone Recovery Rates in September–december Predicted by Ccmval-2 Model Simulations : Volume 12, Issue 8 (01/08/2012)

By Siddaway, J. M.

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Book Id: WPLBN0003989482
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 33
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Future Antarctic Ozone Recovery Rates in September–december Predicted by Ccmval-2 Model Simulations : Volume 12, Issue 8 (01/08/2012)  
Author: Siddaway, J. M.
Volume: Vol. 12, Issue 8
Language: English
Subject: Science, Atmospheric, Chemistry
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


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Petelina, S. V., Klekociuk, A. R., Dargaville, R. J., Karoly, D., & Siddaway, J. M. (2012). Future Antarctic Ozone Recovery Rates in September–december Predicted by Ccmval-2 Model Simulations : Volume 12, Issue 8 (01/08/2012). Retrieved from

Description: Department of Physics, La Trobe University, Bundoora VIC 3086, Australia. Chemistry-climate model validation phase 2 (CCMVal-2) model simulations are used to analyze Antarctic ozone recovery rates in 2000–2100 during local spring and early summer, both vertically integrated and at several pressure levels in the lower stratosphere. Multi-model median trends of monthly zonal mean total ozone column (TOC), ozone volume mixing ratio (VMR), wind speed and temperature poleward of 60° S are investigated. Median values are used to account for large variability in models, and the associated uncertainty is calculated using a bootstrapping technique. According to the selected ten CCMVal-2 models, Antarctic TOC will return to its pre-ozone hole level, taken as an average of 1970–1979 values, between 2065 and 2075 in September–November, and around 2050 in December. In 2000–2020, an increase in TOC is much smaller than in later years, and this is especially evident for December. Although the December TOC recovers to its pre-ozone hole levels earlier compared to all spring months (as the December ozone depletion was much lower), the rate of December TOC increase, is slower than that for all spring months. Projected trends in ozone VMR, temperature and winds at several pressure levels are analyzed in order to attribute the projected rate of December TOC recovery, as well as to investigate future changes in the Antarctic atmosphere in general, including some aspects of the polar vortex breakup.

Future Antarctic ozone recovery rates in September–December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations

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